Research Focus

1. Methodology

Scenarios and future studies still are more a practitioner's art than a rigorous academic field. However, the area does not lend itself to traditional positivist research, due to its complexity and lack of stability. Recent research at Strathclyde has made it clear that even such intuitive approaches to understanding the business environment provide transitional objects to management teams that improve organisational learning, vigilant decision making, competitive advantage and shareholder value-added. A major new research area has recently opened up is in the theory of complex adaptive systems which promises to present new approaches to understanding future studies in a new way.

All this recent work has reinforced our belief that research in this area cannot be of a "desk" nature but needs to be carried out in the field in an action research mode with the managers struggling with their strategic decisions. This means that the research needs to address questions of inter-subjectivity and institutional orthodoxy. Indeed, we would argue that all effective strategising is in its essence grounded theory building, and that the associated methodologies have a lot to offer to those who aim to make the future the object of their research. It is in this general area that the work of the Centre is focused. 

Also within the Centre's research focus is the Delphi technique and more general investigations of the role and validity of judgment in forecasting and futures methodologies. In short, the Centre provides the hub for a critical evaluative approach to futures methodologies and practice. This evaluative approach is, of necessity, inclusive of those who are critical of specific futures methodologies.

2. Future Trends and Trend Breaks

The justification of future studies and scenario approaches is based on the assumption of the existence of semi-permanent causal structures in society that lock in due to positive and negative feedback loops. Particularly in areas of great perceived uncertainty there is a felt need to understand such structures as the underpinning of strategic anticipation. Our approach to scenarios and future studies is based on an iterative approach towards developing such understanding in which articulating intuitive knowledge alternates with hard systemic analysis. We carry out this work by enabling managers to discover things for themselves, rather than doing the work for them. We believe that the most effective way forward is to help managers to become reflective practitioners, with access to appropriate methodology.

We focus our work in areas of high perceived uncertainty, combining working on topics of great interest to managers with producing the most interesting research outcomes. Recently, we have turned the focus of our attention to the area where contemporary organisations feel most exposed, namely the effect of ICT on their business and activities. Specifically we have started exploring the area of Modernising Government, where local authorities feel under considerable pressure to make progress, but are generally quite unclear about how to go about it. In our projects with Stirling Council and Dumfries & Galloway Council we developed interesting insights and ideas for systems. All indications are that the topic of Modernising Government will be capable of keeping us busy for some time to come. It offers great scope for research projects, due to the insatiable demand from local authorities for more understanding.

The Centre's focus is on the production of a series of high quality research papers on topics which are likely to include:

• The epistemology of future studies, and the nature of anticipation
• Management cognition and the future
• Strategy as a form of grounded theory development
• Scenarios as action research on the business environment
• Scenarios as a way of dealing with the complexity of organisational learning
• Scenarios as transitional objects in organisations
• Intervening in complex adaptive systems with scenarios
• Agent-based modelling of societal structure, using "if-then" rules.
• Teaching managers to become reflective practitioners
• Modern management development through action learning groups
• Scenarios on the influence of ICT on governance
• Scenarios on the changing nature of democracy in a networked society
• Scenarios on the knowledge management aspects of local government
• Evaluation of Delphi viz-a-viz other futures methodologies
• Evaluation of the more general role and validity of judgment in forecasting and futures methodologies.